Economic Survey Projects Impressive Growth, Worried over Inflation

Encouraged by reforms and the strong fundamentals, the Economic Survey has forecast that India will regain a high nine per cent growth rate in the year 2011-12 and will be the world’s fasted growing economy in four years, reported PTI.

The document, which takes stock of the state of the economy, however, warned that food inflation would go up further over next few months and came down heavily on the food management policies that have resulted in ‘unacceptable’ high prices of items like sugar, said report.

It may be mentioned that food inflation is currently hovering close to 18 per cent.

The pre-budget Economic Survey (2009-10), which finance minister Pranabh Mukherjee tabled in Parliament, also recommended a ‘gradual rollback’ of stimulus measures after assessing the impact on each sector, said report.

The survey projected an economic growth of 8.75 per cent in 2010-11 and that of 9 per cent in the next year, report said.

“It is entirely possible for India to move into the rarefied domain of double digit growth and even attempt to don the mantle of the fastest growing economy in the world within the next four years,” said the survey.

However, it showed concern over inflation, saying that a major concern during 2009-10 was the emergence of high double digit food inflation, said report.

Criticizing government, particularly for the very high consumer price inflation, the survey said that the ‘hype’ over kharif crop failure without taking into account the comfortable food stocks and rabi prospects ‘may have exacerbated inflationary expectations encouraging hoarding and resulting in a higher inflation in food items’, said report.

“… in the case of sugar, delay in the market release of imported raw sugar may have contributed to the overall uncertainty, thereby allowing prices to rise to unacceptably high levels in recent months,” it added.

The survey further said: “Since December 2009, there have been signs of these high food prices, together with the gradual hardening of non-administered fuel product prices, getting transmitted to other non-food items, thus creating some concerns about higher than anticipated generalised inflation over the next few months.”

The survey, which projected 7.2 per cent growth for 2009-10, said, “The fast-paced recovery of the economy underscores the effectiveness of the policy response of the government in the wake of the financial crisis.”

The board-based recovery, it added, “Creates scope for a gradual rollback, in due course of some of the measures undertaken over the last 15 to 18 months, as part of the policy response to the global slowdown.”

These initiatives, it added, were also necessary for pushing the economy back on the growth path of 9 per cent, the rate at which the economy was expanding before the global crisis hit the world.
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