International Community must watch China’s penchant for “setting up a different kitchen”

Pushback to the BRI projects has compelled China to initiate certain course correction. As the Malaysian railway project rethink suggest some ASEAN members could exert pressure on Beijing for mid-course correction ahead of second BRI summit scheduled on April 26, although one has to watch the final outcome and compromises. However, China is not compromising on controversial projects like CPEC despite India’s protest. India’s foremost China expert Srikanth Kondapalli who will attend BRI Summit, told ET’s Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury that China has a penchant for “setting up a different kitchen” as its founding father Mao Zedong stated in 1949 and that the international community needs to be watchful on this aspect.

1) What is primary objective of second edition of BRI ? How does it help Xi jinpings leadership at a time when there is push back to BRI across continents
The 2nd edition of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is slated to be held in Beijing on April 26, 2019. The inaugural edition of this Forum was held in May 2017 where 29 heads of state. Over 100 delegations had then represented various countries. Now 40 leaders are expected to converge at Beijing. As a “project of thecentury” project, the BRI is likely to witness periodical reviews and garnering support from countries looking for economic reconstruction projects across the three continents of Asia, Europe and Africa. In addition, given the subtitle to the 2ndForum –viz, building community of shared interest – China is planning to consolidate the initial enthusiasm of many countries since 2013 into politico-security arrangements in the near future.

President Xi Jinping had invested heavily in the BRI idea and practice. He initiated it in 2013, nurtured it by galvanizing the party and state organs, inscribed it in the party constitution in 2017 and popularized it at home and abroad. It thus has become identical to Xi’s meteoric rise in the party. For China as well, the BRI promises to overcome the “middle income trap”, reverse the new normal of “medium high growth”, utilize excess manufacturing, financial and talent capacities. On the converse, any reverses to the BRI process is likely to see his legacy and political future being questioned. Of the nearly 200 countries, over 80 have willy-nilly joined the BRI – mainly for economic reasons. China is creating a “hubs and spoke”; continental-maritime linkage system, much like the United States did since 1945 in as a comprehensive manner as possible. This is thus a grand project with a grand strategy, the successes and failures of which will have a direct bearing on Xi as well but also that of China’s course in the near future. China is also going through several debates on the pros and cons of the BRI. A QinghuaUniversity Law Professor Xu was recently silenced for raising concerns on the BRI.

Many countries did make a pushback on the BRI by suggesting to the BRI’s debt or predatory financing, environmental degradation, shoddy infrastructure or on other problems. The US has initiated the Indo-Pacific, Asia Reassurance Initiative Actand Quadrilateral Security Dialogue- mainly in the maritime order. It instituted $60 billion in funding for infrastructure projects. Japan-Indonesia-India has launched Asia-Africa Growth Corridor. Japan has instituted a fund for “quality infrastructure”, while India launched Project Mausam. The European Union has the “sustainable infrastructure” initiative. However, none of these have taken off nor posed considerable challenges to the BRI yet. Many of these countries, despite the opposition to the BRI, have also been co-opted by China in some projects. So it is China/Xi in advantageous position at the moment.

2) Has china altered BRI strategy to a more transparent and inclusive approach following pushback
While many countries are critical of the BRI projects, China’s leaders’ political culture does not allow for a quick overture or U-turn in their projected plans. Nevertheless, such criticism has some positive consequences on the BRI projects of late. Initially, the BRI projects are associated with China’s “unilateral” interventions – be it in diplomacy or finance or in state-owned enterprises role. Nevertheless, recent discourse mentions about “joint construction” of the BRI, although inclusivity is hardly visible as of now. China suggests that the BRI projects are transparent, although no MoUs or undertakings are published or accurate information accessible on such projects. In the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, nevertheless, all project financing appear to have been made on professional consideration and in association with other global banking institutions. At the fifth anniversary of the initiative, President Xi on August 28, 2018 termed the BRI not as a “China club” but meant to be for the humankind.

3) Will this summit signal any change in China’s approach to accommodate concerns of debt diplomacy due to BRI
Of the 1674 projects of different dimensions as a part of the BRI so far, however, 234 projects – i.e., 14 percent of the projects – have exhibited debts or environmental challenges calling for exploring alternate ways of addressing such issues. However, the case of mid-course correction on Malaysian railway project suggests that the criticism on the BRI by Mahatir and others has had some impact. While in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Laos, Nepal and other countries we have not witnessed a plan B, nevertheless, the 2nd BRI forum is likely to take the criticism in its stride, albeit slowly.

4) Why is China not doing enough to address issue of territorial integrity which BRI violates through CPEC
Politburo Member Yang Jiechi, and a former foreign minister, commented that the BRI will avoid “controversial” subjects. However, on the CPEC projects, despite India upping the ante on the subject, there has been no mid-course correction. In fact of the 40-odd projects worth $62 billion, more than half have already constructed in CPEC which was mentioned as the “flag ship” programme of the BRI. O the other hand, according to the Indian Army, China began deploying over 36,000 “security guards” in the disputed territories- suggesting to their physical presence for the first time. If China has been sensitive on its “core interests”, it is observed how it can be so insensitive to others “core interests”. This is likely to open a Pandora’s Box in the future.

5) How is US-china ties impacting BRI
The aim of the BRI is to create niche areas for a rising China in the three continents to start with which are mainly under the US leadership since 1945. Given the opportunities offered by President Trump’s “isolationist” policies, China’s BRI is likely to an instrument, albeit through stealth, in the process of a challenger replacing the current hegemon. China of course is conscious on any explicit emerging conflict with the US as that would consummate its hard-earned 4 decades rise. Yet the temptation for Beijing is increasing . The emerging US-China tariff wars have reduced the Chinese rhetoric for the moment.

6) What should countries undertake to create a parallel narrative to BRI
The US, Japan, India and the EU have created an alternative narrative to the BRI. Yet, this is a slow process.

7) How can ASEAN help to bring changes to BRI to make it instrument which is inclusive, transparent and ensures equality
Of the 6 roads in the BRI projects, the Laos-Cambodia-Vietnam is designated as one road. In addition, the Maritime Silk Road also passes through the South China Sea and others. The ASEAN through its “consensus”, “treaty of amity” and nuclear weapon free zone and free trade zone have initially “tamed” China since the 1990s. However, today it is a divided house with no consensus or joint statement issued on the South China Sea islands dispute since 2010. Besides, the 2nd phase of Hanoi Metro has very high interest rates imposed by China. The Indonesian hi-speed railway has also become controversial, besides that of Mytsone Dam in Myanmar. Yang Jiechi’sreported comments for Singapore that “you are small, we are big” signified the working of the asymmetries. Yet, as the Malaysian railway project rethink suggest some ASEAN members could exert pressure on Beijing for mid-course correction, although one has to watch the final outcome and compromises.

8) How can international community ensure rules based order is upheld amid China’s attempt to dominate geo-politics through BRI

As a part of the five initiatives of the BRI as mentioned in the March 2015 white paper on the subject, viz., policy coordination, connectivity, trade promotion, financial integration and people-to-people contacts, a number of projects began. Over 7,000 cargo trains, 61 railway projects and 77 industrial parks are being undertaken. Silk Road Fund and AIIB have stepped up financing, with 51 percent of loans and equity investments made by four State Owned Banks. Overall, $80 billion in direct investments in non-financial sectors was made, while 82 overseas economic and trade cooperative zones were established with $28.9 billion. China became the largest trading partner for 18 Asian countries, despite global financial crisis and the total trade of China is expected to increase to $5 trillion in five years. Renminbi transactions and tourism are also on the rise. However, these developments have not yet altered the international or regional orders, although the prospects are high. The BRI has been impacting slowly on the global and regional orders by affecting the overall status quo and ushering in new forms of globalisation.

In this context, the international community need to keep an open eye on the BRI projects, encourage those which are meant to enhance circulation of goods and services on global scale but watchful of creating enclaves with politico-diplomatic and military backing. China has a penchant for “setting up a different kitchen” as its founding father Mao Zedong stated in 1949. The international community needs to be watchful on this aspect.
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