RBI cuts GDP forecast to FY25 to 6 %
India’s gross domestic product (GDP) will likely grow 6% in real terms in FY25, according to the “state of economy” report released by the Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday.
The latest projection is lower than 6.5% forecast in the October Monetary Policy Committee report, and comes after the upward revision of the likely growth rate for FY24 from 6.5% to 7%. After the latest review, GDP growth in FY24 is seen at 7.1%.
Further, Consumer Price Index inflation could average at 5.3% in FY24, and moderate to 4.8% in FY25, the report said, adding that both favourable demand side drivers and easing of supply side constraints are at work. GDP is expected to sustain momentum alongside moderation in inflation, despite global headwinds.
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The GDP growth forecast was arrived under the assumption that global GDP growth could be 2.6% in FY24 and 2.1% in FY25. Also, global consumer price index (CPI) inflation is now seen at 5.5% in FY24 and 4% in FY25. The forecasts also assume unchanged RBI policy repo rate, and US Fed funds rate at 6.5% in FY24 and 5.5% in next financial year.
“The baseline forecast suggests that after a phase of high growth in the first half of 2023-24, the Indian economy is likely to undergo some moderation in subsequent quarters,” the RBI report said.
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