Sensex gains over 350 points, Nifty reclaims 10,600; Factors that drove the show

NEW DELHI: Private banks and FMCG accounted for much of the market optimism on Monday as the Sensex and Nifty surged nearly 1 per cent.

Strong macros in the form of a firm rupee and soft oil prices made participants bolder. Strength in global markets too went in the bulls’ favour.

The BSE benchmark Sensex climbed 373.06 points or 1.07 per cent to 35,354.08. Only nine out of 30 constituents were in the red.

NSE barometer Nifty added 101.85 points or 0.97 per cent to 10,628.60. On the 50-share index, 34 stocks advanced while 16 fell.

Barring metals and pharma indices, all other sectors were in the green. FMCG, IT, private bank and financials powered the sectoral show, rising by up to 2.30 per cent.

Top factors that led to the rally:

Global markets edge higher
Asian stocks and US equity futures posted modest gains on Monday on hopes of solid US holiday sales though risk appetite was tempered as plunging oil prices fanned worries about the global economic outlook. Investors were also cautious before US and Chinese leaders meet for crucial talks at the end of the week as trade tensions between the economic superpowers showed no signs of easing, Reuters reported.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.6 per cent, led by gains in Hong Kong and Taiwan, while Japan’s Nikkei advanced 0.8 per cent. This uptick in Asian equities strengthened investor sentiment back home.

Rupee gets some lustre back
The domestic unit acquired more strength against the dollar as it opened higher on Monday. The rupee gained 17 paise at 70.52 in the beginning. The strength in the rupee comes as a good sign, allaying fears of rising fiscal deficit.

Declining crude prices
Softer oil prices are another positive sign, which cheered investors. Oil prices did claw back some losses from a nearly 8-per cent plunge the previous session, but Brent failed to hold above $60 per barrel amid generally weak financial markets.

Even an expected supply cut led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) following an official meeting on December 6 “may not be enough to counteract the bearish forces”, Reuters quoted Fitch as saying.

Pick-up in rollover activity
There was some pick-up in rollover activity. The Nifty rollovers till last week stood at 10.07 per cent, which were lower than 13.41 per cent in October and the 3-month average of 12.61 per cent, said Geojit Financial Services.

“Hefty Call writing and maximum Call open interest at the 10,700 strike indicates that this strike will act as the major short term resistance level. On the other hand, 10,300 strike which witnessed long addition is expected to be the major support level,” the brokerage said in the morning note.

Bullish macro view
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) statement that it is expecting India’s economy to grow close to 7.5 per cent in 2019 and 2020. India’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.7 per cent in 2017-18. Some comfort also came with a private report indicating that the Reserve Bank of India is expected to keep the key policy rates unchanged at its ensuing policy review meet next month, amid easing global crude oil prices and robust agriculture production.
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