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As Diplomatic as US, as Firm as China
November 20, 2009 Visionmp.com news service
…New Delhi’s lack of vision, a far-sighted, more practical foreign policy is responsible for India’s slighting. China and Pakistan have sensed that what is needed for making better of US ties is a strong approach centred on Washington’s weaknesses due to President Obama’s inability to – or political compulsions not to– take decisions like George W Bush…
Saurabh Dharmeshwari
Call it involvement, participation, or an intervention, to my mind, there’s something unnoticeably weird about the story that the US presence in South Asia is, increasing day by day as it is. As you see, it’s time of some high-profile visits of unparallel diplomatic significance – State Secretary Hillary Clinton’s Pakistan visit, President Obama’s China visit, PM Manmohan Singh’s state visit etc – and that of confusion and discomfitures for New Delhi, Islamabad, and Beijing, about each-other’s growing ties with the US, which is now a usual thing.
India, for instance, instantly voiced its sharp opposition to the mention of Indo-Pak ties in the US-China joint statement; Pakistan put up an unsuccessful objection to rider on US military aid to it and pressed for early resumption of peace dialogue with India and resolution of Kashmir; China nearly received Washington’s concessions on Tibet but not on Arunachal Pradesh.
Seeing from a desk in the White House, the US is attempting a tough job of dealing with its three ‘significant’ Asian allies as objectively as it can to secure American interests without much hurting anyone of them. None of the three countries find themselves to come to terms with it.
What does emerge out of this all? Seeing from a desk in the White House, I believe, the US is attempting a tough job of dealing with its three ‘significant’ Asian allies as objectively as it can to make sure American interests are secured without much hurting anyone of them. And this hurting, yes, it’s US expectation from all the three to compromise on one count or the other to achieve what world would recognize as peace and stability in the region. None of the three countries find themselves to come to terms with it and, sadly, in India we realize that New Delhi is or is going to be the biggest loser in the process.
India’s concerns and apprehensions are well placed, but it’s not as easy as that. I think, for the sake of clarity, let’s first briefly talk of America’s ties with China and Pakistan before we focus on Indo-US ties. As is increasingly evident following Obama’s China visit, the US – recession-stricken, Beijing-dependent – has opted for partnering rising economic growth of the dragon rather than competing with it or balancing it with India. The US-China joint statement is nothing short of first step from American side to form ‘Chimerica’, the group of great two to solve global problems. Clearly, the unprecedented American concessions to China on Tibet and Indo-Pak ties (despite knowing Beijing’s bias towards Islamabad due to its own interest) are in the same spirit.
In a nutshell, the US is beginning to herald new era of ties with China and obviously keeping it far above India. Beijing, though, has shown no inclination to give the US similar concessions which it seeks on Iran, Chinese currency, climate change deal and all. It’s a one way story, hitherto, driven by one’s monetary need and other’s ability to bale out.
Speaking of US-Pak relations, after a spell of ups and downs, it’s back to path of strengthening, but is presently based on what virtually seems ‘bargain’ rather than partnership. Islamabad has handed Washington hundreds of Taliban and al-Qaida militants to justify military and monetary aid to it. For American presence in Afghanistan and its future strategy for Iran, Pakistan continues to be very significant for the US. Islamabad, in return for this, expects Washington to ensure resolution of Kashmir soon, something which events in recent months confirm the US is delivering on.
As for Indo-US ties, they’ve slighted relatively, of late; for America’s interest in India has become of comparatively lower priority. Trade is the only sphere the US cannot even minutely afford to overlook with regard to India and other crucial things Washington is interested in getting New Delhi to concede are signature on NPT, consent to Climate change deal etc. To secure its interest in India, it will pressure Pak to act on 26/11, terrorists and be neutral on Arunachal Pradesh.
No doubt, the US has made its policy for the region more matter-of-factly than before, doing both – prioritizing its ties based on other’s significance and developing them with all three countries. The whole US involvement in South Asia – ridiculously grounded on the proposition to establish peace and stability in the region by ensuring a balance of power between China, India and Pakistan, with US being India’s shield against China and that of being Pakistan’s against India, is serving a contrary purpose. There exists palpable degree of mistrust and apprehensions in all the three countries about the US because of its growing ties with the other.
Well, in spite of the US having a strategic compulsion to be more favourable to them, China and Pakistan have their reservation about Indo-US relations. Be it Indo-US nuke deal (much controversial at home, though), Indo-US trade, an impressive number of Indian Americans in Obama administration, and likely joint ventures as a counter-terrorism deal, cooperation in spheres such as green technologies, food security, or poverty-alleviation, Islamabad worries about them all and Beijing doesn’t take them lightly. No doubt, they want to take full mileage from the US but deem even less cooperation between Washington and New Delhi as unacceptable. But the US has not given them this concession and is unlikely to do so in the future.
The whole US involvement in South Asia – ridiculously grounded on the proposition to establish peace and stability in the region by ensuring a balance of power between China, India and Pakistan – is serving a contrary purpose. There exists mistrust in all the three countries about the US.
I strongly believe that the reason of greater American favour to Pakistan and China is not merely attributed to its diplomatic or strategic or economic compulsion, New Delhi’s lack of vision, a far-sighted, more practical foreign policy is responsible for this, just the same. China and Pakistan, for example, have sensed (just as Iran, Israel, or Philippines have) that what is needed for making better of US ties is a strong approach centred on Washington’s weaknesses at the moment due to President Obama’s inability to – or political compulsions not to – take decisions like his predecessor George W Bush. India doesn’t have to be a blackmailer. It has to be practical and align country’s national goals to its foreign policy exactly as the US does to its own. In a short, India has to make a place of top priority for the US on its own. How can India do so with Pakistan and China apparently being more important?
Come to think of longevity of America’s ties with the three countries. It’s only a matter of time the US finds itself unable to resist the temptation of competing with Chinese economic rise rather than partnering it. The US-China ties cannot stay at the point as they are today for a long term due to competitive, domineering nature of each-other. As for Pakistan, it again depends on when the US either eliminates Taliban or al-Qaida or withdraws from the region admitting that it cannot defeat them. US-Pak ties can also not stay at the point as they are today for a longer term. India can have long term ties with the US. Pakistan and China’s discomfort about Indo-US relations authenticates this fact. So, India has to take chances to preserve its interest that might otherwise be sacrificed due to Obama’s vulnerability to bargain tactics of Pakistan and China.
India has to take some crucial things into mind in its foreign policy, such as why we’ve failed to attract the US towards us in the way China has, though we’re better English speaking, have more buying power, share a democratic culture and don’t have a record or believe in competition and hegemony. Why we let the US forget all such salient points over a single fact that China at present has better GDP than India. Our new policy to the US has to concentrate on making full use of all this, no matter chances have to be taken and tough stands adopted. Also, India has to be resolute enough to ask the US for clarification on its policy to Pakistan and China, and not to bow on NPT and climate change deal. Towards Pakistan, an independent policy to expose its terrorists to the world (through a separate organization to search terrorists and terror plots, find leads and evidence) need to be adopted.
And India has to do it soon. Very soon. During Prime Minister’s state visit.
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