Why America’s sanctions on Russia and Iran are unlikely to work

Members of Congress want tough new sanctions against Russia for its interference in American elections. Sanctions will remain in place against North Korea, the White House says, until Pyongyang shows progress toward denuclearisation. After tearing up the Iran nuclear accord, the Trump administration restored sanctions against Tehran in an effort to get a better deal on restricting its weapons and a change in its behavior. And even NATO ally Turkey faces sanctions for imprisoning several US citizens and employees of its diplomatic mission.

Policymakers claim that sanctions are an effective means of achieving policy goals, but is that true? Are new measures against Moscow and Tehran likely to be successful?

Research on sanctions by myself and others has shown that they can sometimes be effective. But there are three key elements: allies, a willingness to enforce them and incentives to bargain. The absence of all three means they probably won’t work with Russia and Iran.

One reason new sanctions against Iran won’t be effective is that US allies, such as the EU, oppose them. Photo credit: Leonhard Foeger/Reuters
One reason new sanctions against Iran won’t be effective is that US allies, such as the EU, oppose them. Photo credit: Leonhard Foeger/Reuters
Unilateral sanctions rarely work
Allies supporting and reinforcing sanctions are usually pivotal to making them stick.

Unilateral sanctions such as the proposed measures against Russia and Iran are seldom successful. Although the European Union has placed sanctions on Russia because of its actions in Ukraine, the latest legislative measures proposed in Congress would be unilateral.
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