Hindi heartland, south may power NDA’s 400 haul: Key takeaways from exit polls

The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will retain power with a thumping majority in the Lok Sabha, exit polls predicted on Saturday. Most of the pollsters predicted the ruling party will likely score its highest-ever tally in national elections, with some even claiming the NDA will achieve its ambitious target of winning 400 seats.

 

People wearing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s face in Rajasthan. (File photo)

People wearing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s face in Rajasthan. (File photo)

 

Narendra Modi, who will likely equal Jawaharlal Nehru’s record of becoming the prime minister of the country thrice in a row, has set a tough target of 370 seats for the BJP and 400 seats for the alliance. No other party barring the Congress has ever won 400 seats in general elections.

 

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India Today-Axis My India predicted that the ruling NDA may cross the 400-mark. The agency predicted the BJP-led alliance may win 361-401 seats. The Opposition’s INDIA bloc is likely to win 131-166 seats.

 

India TV-CNX exit polls also predicted similar figures for the BJP — between 371 and 401 seats. The INDIA bloc may win between 109 and 139 seats.

 

What the exit polls predicted?

The Republic TV-P Marq said the NDA will win 359 seats and the INDIA bloc will bag 154 seats. The Republic TV-Matrize poll gave 353-368 seats to the NDA and 118-133 seats to the opposition. The Jan Ki Baat poll gave 362-392 seats to the ruling NDA and 141-161 to the opposition alliance. The India TV-CNX gave them 371-401 and 109-139 seats.

 

 

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BJP’s strong performance in south

The BJP is expected to put on a strong show in southern states, according to the exit polls. In Telangana, the Congress and the BJP are neck and neck.

 

According to exit poll results telecast by TV9 Bharatvarash, BJP-led NDA is poised to win seven of the 17 Lok Sabha seats, the INDIA bloc will win eight seats.

 

India TV’s exit poll said that the BJP-led NDA may get between 8-10 seats and the opposition bloc between 6-8 seats.

 

Per News18, the BJP is expected to win 7-10 seats in Telangana, the INDIA bloc 5-8 seats and the BRS 2-5 seats.

 

In 2019, the BJP had won only four seats in the state.

 

In Tamil Nadu, however, DMK-led INDIA bloc is expected to win most of the state’s 39 seats. According to the Axis-My India exit poll, the BJP-led NDA is expected to win 2-4 seats in Tamil Nadu. The INDIA bloc is set to win 33-37 seats.

 

 

In a silver lining for the BJP, the party is expected to win 1-3 seats in the state.

 

In Kerala, where the politics has revolved around two alliances spearheaded by CPM and Congress, UDF is expected to win 17-18 seats, according to Axis My India.

 

It predicted that NDA will likely get its highest ever vote share of around 27 percent. The alliance is expected to win a few seats in the state as well.

 

The News 18 exit poll predicted 1-3 seats for NDA in Kerala. It said UDF is expected to win 15-18 seats and CPM-led LDF 2-5 seats.

 

The Times Now-ETG predicted one seat for the BJP in Kerala. It said Congress-led UDF and CPI(M)-led LDF are expected to win 14-15 and four seats respectively.

 

 

Most of the exit polls have predicted a landslide victory for the BJP-led alliance in Karnataka. Per the polls, the alliance is expected to win over 20 seats.

 

In total, per ABP-Cvoter, the NDA will double its 2019 figure of 32 seats. The coalition could win 55 to 64 seats in the five southern states – Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana. News18 gave the NDA 51 to 64 seats in the region, while Axis My India gave it 59 to 67.

 

BJP to rule the roost in Hindi heartland

 

In Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 members to the lower house of Parliament, the NDA is projected to win 69 to 74 seats, while the INDIA bloc is expected to secure 6 to 11 seats, according to Republic Bharat-Matrize. It predicted that Mayawati’s BSP, which won 10 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, won’t win any seat. Meanwhile, NDTV-Jan Ki Baat has predicted that the BJP-led NDA has chances of winning between 68 to 74 seats in Uttar Pradesh. Most of the exit polls showed the BJP improving its 2019 tally.

 

 

In Madhya Pradesh, per the India Today-Axis My India poll and India TV, NDA is set to win 28-29 seats, Times Now ETG has predicted a clean sweep for NDA with all 29 seats in its kitty.

 

In Jharkhand, the India Today-Axis My India poll survey predicted the victory of the NDA in 8-10 seats. Times Now-ETG has given 13 seats to the alliance.

 

BJP to surpass Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool in Bengal

In West Bengal and Odisha, most exit polls predicted that the BJP will upset Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress and Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal.

 

NDTV-Jan Ki Baat exit poll has predicted between 21 and 26 seats for the saffron party and 16-18 for the TMC in the Lok Sabha elections 2024, voting for which was concluded on Saturday, June 1.

 

 

India News-D-Dynamics also gave 21 seats to the BJP and 19 to the Trinamool Congress, while Republic Bharat-Matrize predicted between 21 and 25 seats for the BJP. It predicted between 16 and 20 seats for Mamata Banerjee’s party in the state.

 

In Odisha, most exit polls predicted that the BJP will register significant gains.

 

Most exit polls have predicted significant gains for the Bharatiya Janata Party in Odisha, which has been the bastion of Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal (BJD) for over two decades.

 

BJP to maintain lead in Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh

The BJP will likely emerge as the single-largest party in Haryana, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.

 

Axis My India has predicted 6-9 seats for the BJP-led NDA and 2-4 seats for the INDIA bloc in Haryana. Times Now ETG has predicted 7 seats for the BJP-led NDA and three seats for the INDIA bloc. According to ‘Today’s Chanakya’ exit poll by News 24, NDA is expected to win six seats, and Congress is expected to win four seats.

 

 

In Uttarakhand, both Times Now-ETG and News 24-‘Today’s Chanakya’ exit polls have predicted that the BJP will win all five seats.

 

Axis My India predicted that the BJP will win all four seats in Himachal Pradesh. According to India TV exit polls, NDA is expected to win 3-4 seats in the state. The Times Now-ETG exit poll has given three seats to the BJP and one seat to the INDIA bloc.

 

Jammu and Kashmir

In Jammu and Kashmir, the Axis My India exit poll predicted that the National Democratic Alliance will win 2-3 seats. The INDIA bloc will also win 2-3 seats, per the poll.

 

Gujarat

The BJP is expected to win all 26 seats in its bastion, Gujarat. According to exit poll figures by Times Now-ETG, NDA is set to sweep all 26 seats. India TV’s exit poll also predicted that the Congress-led INDIA bloc won’t even open its account in the coastal state.

The Congress is contesting the Lok Sabha polls in Gujarat in alliance with the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party.
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