Madhya Pradesh Bypolls Conclude

Bhopal

Widely regarded as a pointer towards the mood in the state since the ousting of long-serving Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the bypolls in two assembly constituencies of Madhya Pradesh concluded on Wednesday.

The by-election in the two constituencies of Budhni and Vijaypur recorded 77.32% and 77.85% voter turnout, respectively.

The election in Budhni was mandated by the resignation of Chouhan after he was elected to the Lok Sabha in the 2024 general elections, while the polls in Vijaypur became necessary after incumbent state Forest Minister and BJP candidate Ramnivas Rawat resigned from the state assembly following his decision to quit the Congress and join the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.

Budhni, on the outskirts of the state capital Bhopal, is Chouhan’s pocket borough. The charismatic leader grew up here among people who consider him their own. His popularity may be gauged by his 2023 assembly win with over one lakh votes.

Though Chouhan had sought the BJP ticket for his son, Kartikeya Singh, the party’s central command ruled in favour of former Vidisha MP Ramakant Bhargava, who had been denied a Lok Sabha ticket earlier this year to make way for Chouhan. Speculations aside, people in Budhni consider Bhargava to be Chouhan’s candidate.

The former Chief Minister has left no stone unturned in ensuring a victory for Bhargava in Budhni. He campaigned and rallied until he convinced both voters and pundits of his invincibility in the constituency.

If the Budhni arithmetic was simple, the calculus in Vijaypur was in stark contrast, with the BJP attempting to snatch away the seat, long regarded as a Congress bastion.

Rawat, the BJP candidate, was the biggest Congress leader in the area until a change of heart saw him move to the ruling party in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections. Rawat was soon inducted into Mohan Yadav’s council of ministers.

In the 2023 Vidhan Sabha elections, Rawat had scored 69,646 votes against the 51,587 polls by BJP candidate Baboolal Mewra. The simple win didn’t come without challenges, as back then, Mukesh Malhotra, a local Sahariya tribal leader and BJP rebel, had secured 44,128 votes. And if that wasn’t enough, the BSP candidate, Dhara Singh Kushwaha, had polled 34,346 votes.

In a near reversal of roles this time around, Rawat is contesting on the BJP ticket, while Malhotra is the Congress candidate for the seat. The 2023 statistics suggest that the campaign for Vijaypur was going to be a tough one, especially as Congress provincial chief Jitu Patwari had been strategising for the tribal-dominated seat for months prior to the election.

In the months leading up to the bypolls, Patwari had urged party members to teach Rawat a lesson for crossing over to the BJP.

The changing political weather in Vijaypur saw the ruling party launch state assembly speaker Narendra Singh Tomar into the attack, in what many say is a move away from tradition. Tomar camped in the area for nearly a fortnight, not long after the BJP attempted to pacify Mewra by nominating him as the chairperson of the Sahariya Board.

Indications coming in from Vijaypur suggest that, in stark contrast to Budhni, the bypoll outcome in Vijaypur is anyone’s guess.