North Korea talks: what will Donald Trump give up?

The hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels might yet land President Donald Trump in trouble with election campaign finance laws, but his planned meeting with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un will be more consequential for the world in the immediate future.

Trump is tentatively slated to meet Kim at a soon-to-be-disclosed location, probably in June. There are premature calls for Trump to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for orchestrating the historic meeting.

The unconventional Trump deserves praise for his maximum pressure campaign against Pyongyang in forcing Kim to the negotiating table.

Yet despite the conciliatory public messaging from both sides in recent weeks, there are grave risks that the meeting could backfire.

If discussions break down over North Korea refusing to bow to American insistence of a fully denuclearised Korean peninsula, war once again becomes plausible.

Ely Ratner, an Asia policy expert who worked in the Barack Obama White House, warns: “If diplomacy fails then we are in a dangerous place.”

“Then war becomes possible.”

Patient approach
Similarly, Victor Cha, who was Trump’s original pick to be US ambassador to South Korea before the President dropped him, describes the proposed US-North Korea summit as potentially “highly rewarding” but “extremely risky” if it fails.

“We are in a better place today but it is not without its own set of risks,” Cha says.

Few experts, if anyone, believe Kim will completely abandon his nuclear capabilities, though some sort of compromise option might be feasible.

After all, “denuclearisation” means different things to different people.

Ratner, now vice-president and director of studies at the Centre for a New American Security, says the Trump-Kim encounter should be a precursor to further meetings between officials and they should not try to land an immediate concrete deal.

Trump’s strategy should be to negotiate with Kim in high-level terms and not get bogged down in technical and complex details on issues he is not an expert on.

Such a patient approach conflicts with Trump’s impulsive instincts from his real estate development and celebrity TV career to immediately execute the “Art of the Deal”.

By nature, Trump will want to finish a meeting with Kim by publicly declaring he has won and North Korea has agreed to end its nuclear program.

New Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said at his swearing in last week that the Trump administration had an “unprecedented opportunity to change the course of history on the Korean peninsula”.

“The American people are counting on us to get this right.

“We are committed to the permanent, verifiable, irreversible dismantling of North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction program and do so without delay.”

In reality, the best outcome the US might ultimately hope for is for Pyongyang to move towards abandoning its long-range missiles capable of hitting the US mainland.

Kim will probably never concede entirely abandoning his nuclear arsenal capable of striking neighbouring South Korea and Japan. It is his insurance card and a key to his regime’s survival.

A North Korean offer to abandon its long-range missiles and remove the threat to the US will appeal to Trump’s “America First” policy.

Trump’s core promise to American voters is to ensure Pyongyang can’t strike the US.

Yet by pursuing American self interest, Trump would risk being seen as abandoning allies in South Korea and Seoul.

He might not care so much, given his long-held scepticism about the American military presence in North Asia.

But Japan would likely be deeply worried. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been lobbying Trump to stick solidly with Japan.

Cha, who in the past participated in six-party talks over North Korea, says Washington must decide what it is willing to give up in a negotiation.

“We want North Korea to give up their nuclear weapons, but the hard part to coordinate among allies and China is what are we willing to give?”

Trump on Friday denied a media report that the White House had commissioned options for withdrawing some of the 28,500 American troops in South Korea.

Experts say South Korea’s dovish leader Moon Jae-in might be prepared to accept fewer joint training drills with US troops in return for a de-escalation of US-North Korea tensions.

Seoul for years has lived with the threat of a North Korean strike and ultimately may continue to stomach this risk if a North Korea-US war was removed from the table.

North Korea’s estranged ally China will also be a key player.

Trump might be willing to dangle the prospect of more lenient trade actions against Beijing in return for progress on North Korea.

In the American foreign policy establishment, there will be resistance to Trump cutting a deal with Kim that is seen to compromise the US troop presence in North Asia or risk being seen as neglecting its allies.

But the alternative of a re-escalation of US-North Korea tensions could be dire.
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