After Karnataka, BJP turns focus on Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh
After the recent electoral battle with Congress in Karnataka and the close shave in Gujarat late last year, BJP is now set to fight the Grand Old Party in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in the forthcoming Assembly polls and will be banking on the strong RSS network in these states to beat the high antiincumbency against it.
Though Congress came down from 122 seats to 78 in Karnataka, its vote share has gone up to 38% which was higher than the BJP. A close analysis shows BJP has transferred votes to JDS in southern Karnataka to defeat Congress. However, with a direct fight in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Chhattisgarh, Congress may emerge as a formidable foe as was the case in Gujarat.
BJP is said to be on a comparatively safer wicket in Chhattisgarh but may find the going tough in MP and Rajasthan where the anti-incumbency is said to be high. Congress, on the other hand, is getting its act together to pose a strong challenge as seen by the recent allocation of responsibilities to senior party leaders in MP.
Making matters worse for BJP, both Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje and her MP counterpart Shivraj Singh Chouhan are not the best of friends with party chief Amit Shah. Chouhan has been battling farmer unrest and there is general disenchantment with BJP, which has ruled the state for 15 years.
The strong RSS cadre in all three poll-bound states gives BJP hope of salvaging the situation. Chouhan and Chhattisgarh CM Raman Singh have always kept the RSS in good humour in their respective states. However, the wide differences between Raje and RSS in Rajasthan have the potential to damage its prospects in the elections.
With Karnataka elections and the fourth anniversary of Narendra Modi-led NDA government over, Shah is likely to announce the new Rajasthan BJP unit chief this week.
The issue is stuck as he and state chief minister Vasundhara Raje have not been able to reach a consensus on who should replace Ashok Parnami, a close associate of Raje. Shah has been trying to find common ground and was waiting for the May 26 celebrations to get over, sources said.
BJP’s UP general secretary (organisation) Sunil Bansal is likely to be moved to Rajasthan though there are reports that he may be relocated as he may contest from one of the seats near Jaipur. One of the major worries for BJP in Rajasthan is the difference between Raje and the RSS office-bearers in the state.
This was one of the principal reasons for BJP’s defeat in the 2008 Assembly polls. Raje has always sought a free hand in ticket distribution and appointment of office-bearers but has run into difficulties with RSS in the state. Known for providing good law and order in her previous term as CM, she has failed to do so this time. Congress is on the upswing in the state and this poses a serious threat to BJP.
If Congress wins these assembly elections, it will be a further boost to the Opposition, which has already began the exercise of putting up a united front against the NDA.
Though a victory in assembly polls does not guarantee a win in Lok Sabha polls, it will definitely be a major pointer to the growing support for Congress after Karnataka and Gujarat.
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