Assembly elections 2018: Will a divided opposition spell good news for BJP in Chhattisgarh?
The voting to the final-phase of polls in Chhattisgarh concluded on November 20, 2018. And the question on everyone’s mind is whether the state will see another photo finish? In 2003, the BJP won 50 seats in Chhattisgarh with 39.26% vote share, while the Congress got 37 seats and a 36.71% vote share. In the subsequent elections, the BJP and Congress both improved their vote shares. In 2013, the BJP won 49 seats and received 41.33% votes, while the Congress won 39 seats and got 40.33% of the votes.
Considering that the BJP has been in power for the last 15 years, the opinion polls predict a clearing victory for Congress, winning 54 out of 90 seats, and give the BJP 33 seats based on the anti-incumbency factor working against it.
Interestingly though, despite anti-incumbency factor, the opinion polls rate chief minister Raman Singh as the tallest leader in the state.
SO WHAT CAN IMPACT THE RESULT?
For the Congress, a new political realignment between Ajit Jogi and Mayawati-led BSP could play spoilsport. Ajit Jogi who has a strong influence on the Bilaspur region and tribal belts which got got 40.33% of the votes in the 2013 polls left the Congress in mid-October, after his son and then Congress legislator Amit Jogi was suspended for anti-party activities.
His new party, the Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) and alliance with the Mayawati-led BSP is expected to tap into the Dalit votes, which otherwise would have gone to the Congress making it harder for the latter to cash in on the anti-incumbency factor
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE BJP?
While the BJP should have been happy about facing a divided opposition, it could still be in trouble. In the last 15 years, the party failed to carry favour with SC and ST voters. Its attempt to dilute the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act and its lack of action against increasing atrocities against minority communities are only expected to hurt its chances further.
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