New Delhi: GDP or gross domestic product growth is projected at 7 per cent in financial year 2019-20, according to the Economic Survey, tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday. The projection is higher than a growth rate of 6.8 per cent – the lowest in five years – clocked by the economy for the year ended March 31.
Prepared by Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian, Thursday’s Economic Survey is the first by the re-elected Narendra Modi government. Noting that the huge political mandate augurs well for economic growth prospects, the Economic Survey said the country’s GDP growth has averaged 7.5 per cent in past five years, and political stability should push the animal spirits of the economy.
The real GDP growth projection reflects a recovery in the economy after a deceleration in the growth momentum in 2018-19. Growth is expected to pick up in 2019-20 as macroeconomic conditions continue to be stable while structural reforms initiated in the previous few years are continuing on course, the Economic Survey said.
However, both downside risks and upside prospects persist in 2019-20, it added. The performance of consumption will be crucial in deciding the growth path of economy.
Rural wages growth which was declining seems to have bottomed out and has started to increase since mid-2018. Further growth in rural wages should help spur rural demand.
Investment rate, which was declining from 2011-12 seems to have bottomed out, is expected to pick up further in the year 2019-20 on the back of higher credit growth, said the Economic Survey.
As the flagship document of the finance ministry, the Economic Survey provides detailed statistical data covering all aspects of the economy.
The government stood by its path of fiscal consolidation in financial year 2018-19, stated the Economic Survey, which expects the general fiscal deficit at 5.8 per cent in 2018-19 as against 6.4 per cent in 2017-18.
The release of Economic Survey 2018-19 comes a day ahead of the presentation of Union Budget in Parliament. Typically, an Economic Survey provides a policy perspective for the Union Budget.
In January-March, annual growth slumped to 5.8 per cent, the slowest pace in 20 quarters. Growth for the financial year that ended in March was 6.8 per cent, also a five-year low, and indicators such as plummeting industrial output and automobile sales have stoked fears of a deeper slowdown.
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