A new study has challenged Elon Musk’s warning that falling birth rates could become a major threat to civilisation. Researchers argue that a gradual decline in the global population to about 4 billion by 2200 could reduce pressure on natural resources and improve human well-being.
According to media reports, the world population passed 8 billion in 2022. The United Nations expects it to reach about 8.5 billion in the coming years and peak at around 10.4 billion by 2080.
More than half of the world’s countries now have fertility rates below the replacement level of about 2.1 children per woman. Researchers say the decline is linked to better education, healthcare, contraception and greater choices for women.
The study examined population growth and eight environmental indicators between 1970 and 2020. It found population size had a major impact on factors including carbon emissions, energy use, freshwater use, biodiversity loss, plastic production and pesticide use.
Researchers said smaller families could reduce pressure on land, water and energy while helping to lower poverty and resource-related conflicts.
The study also challenges concerns that a shrinking population will automatically cause economic decline. Researchers noted that global GDP per person more than doubled between 1970 and 2020 despite major demographic changes.
They stressed that the proposed population decline should come through voluntary measures such as education, family planning and access to contraception, not forced population control.
The researchers also warned that endless growth in consumption remains a major environmental challenge, even if global population growth slows.
